Great news. We’ve given up hope on Hopetown, that warm village (with the cold swimming water) on Elbow Cay, Bahamas. There’s liberation in moving on, even if we know not where to.

Dominica, with its unfinished lovely house, has also come and gone, like so many Sundays. There’s something intimidating about a BreakAway where the most inviting villages are a 90-minute ride on bad roads from the main town. I’m like, maybe it’s not okay if it’s that hard to get an occasional New York Times or rub shoulders with a crowd of strangers. It just wasn’t coming together. Wasn’t meant to be.

So what about Grenada? How did that show up? The way that many of life’s mysteries get solved: Mere happenstance.

Picture this. I’m purging some files from a crowded drawer—to make room for new piles and files. One marked “Travel” gets rudely tossed in the garbage. I’m trying to hurry, but a little hunch says, “Open that up.”

So I do. I thumb through it. From way back in 1996, there’s an article I clipped from a local Sunday paper about Grenada. The picture under the headline all but transported me there.

That’s a feeling I’ve been waiting for.

Since, some quick research has brought forth a wide array of seductive options. The words “friendly, proud, warm” have described the people over and over. Some quick air connection probing has found connections surprisingly “easy” and inexpensive.

Maybe you were right, Ronnie. It’s time to invade Grenada! The obstacle course between here and there keeps growing and jolting. But at least there’s a distant destination to run toward. Now if we can only navigate the turbulent waters and get there in one piece…

• ODDS OF GOING TODAY: 65%
• ODDS THAT GRENADA IS THE PLACE: 80%
• BIGGEST FEARS ABOUT GOING: 2N2M (2 Numerous 2 Mention)

San Juan, Puerto Rico: The best place to fly home from.

• $206: The per-person cost of a one-way ticket on Delta from San Juan. Cheap cheap!
• Today: The day we decided on a date and bought the tickets. Non refundable.
• 2-24-08: The day we fly home.
• 69: Number of days we’ll be gone. If all goes as, dare I say, “planned.”
• 85% ODDS THAT WE’LL GO (OR…SIMPLY LOSE ANOTHER $824.)

• 84 Percent of college students who say they are educated about money management and understand the consequences of debt.
• 50 Percentage who say they wish they had a plan to help decrease their debt.
• Source: Western Union Payment Services

If you read the previous entry about money disorders, here is some proof that such ailments run wide, deep, early and often in the U.S.A.

Analyzing these two little stats brings many theses (rhymes with feces) including…

Isn’t it amazing the confidence that youth (or is it all Americans?) have? 84% say they are educated about money, yippee, but 50% say they need help? Sorry, that’s a blithely ignorant nonstarter.

The 50% suggests that, obviously, half of them already have debt problems. Sure, college is a spendy time. But if you’re already worrisomely in debt and don’t have a plan, my bet is that you will suffer from that illness much or most of your life.

Shall we hazard a guess at their lifestyle? No judgment here, I hope they’re happy. But my gut says the majority have cell phones. Go out several nights a week. Drink better inebriants than we did in college. And wear cool, branded clothes. But hey, have fun!

False confidence. Deep debt. No plan. Ain’t that America? Yeesh.

This article, by New York Times reporter Sarah Kershaw, contains much great news.

Finally, the mental health community is embracing the notion of money disorders—beyond the old-school ones like kleptomania and Sex-in-the-Cityism (shopaholism).

There are many possible new disorder definitions and treatments emerging. But the favorite has to be workaholism. Don’t we all know about 5 dozen people who proudly proclaim themselves to be such? The ones I know seem utterly powerless over it, yet utterly proud of it. What a sick combo. (That’s like a certified alcoholic saying, “Watch me do all these shots!”)

In a recent seminar I led for graphic design professionals (“Your Big Break: Making and Taking Time for What Matters”), more than half of the participants said that they are workaholics. They did claim to want a Sabbatical someday. Hence, their attendance.

But the #1 obstacle they listed was workaholism. They’d all smile and headbob as another said the W word. Like they all belonged to some private club or were fanatic about some sports team.

It was hard, very hard, to know what to say to these folks. Usually, the #1 obstacle is lack of money. Workaholism is the new debt, perhaps?

This article mentions a survey from June 2008—before the market crash—that found that,

“75% of the more than 2,500 adults surveyed said money was the No. 1 source of stress in their lives.”

Sad. Market vagaries aside, truth is we live in a rich country. Most people could live within their means, they just don’t know how.

Maybe they DO have a disorder. Maybe, finally, they can get some professional help. And I’m not tawkin’ about seeing a stock jockey.

The good news was: We were close on a lead for a nice house in Dominica, an island we’ve never visited but are curious about.

The bad news is: It’s off. PSYCHE!

It was fun while it lasted. The view from the roller coaster is stunning when you’re on the top and moving slowly. But then, you start falling, falling, falling—SCREAM!

That house is not only too expensive, but it is not yet finished. They say it WILL be by the time we’d get there. But we know islands enough to know…otherwise.

So we’re now looking at about 6 alterna-accomodations on Dominica. You know, jungle retreats, organic farms, little apartments. And the possibility of moving around a lot (yuck!) and gaining a lot of experiences (hit or miss).

Those options all come courtesy of a rental agent there. But there are more questions than answers, again. More unknowns than knowns.

So many dilemmas, so little time. Once again, winter in Minnesota ain’t sounding so bad.

Just don’t ask me about THAT in Jan or Feb.

• ODDS OF GOING: 30%

Well, here we go again.

The stock market, and by that I mean virtually ALL stock markets, have headed south with a vengeance and violence I’ve not seen in my 24 years of holding stocks. .

Does it make a guy rethink flying away and spending buckets of moolah to shirk duties? YES. And how. And yet, if the trip cost $55 and that was all I had left after this stock crash, would I choose to spend $50 of those last dollars on this trip? Damn right!

After all, long-term go-getters expect troubles, and yet stick with their plans (like the 11 Commandments of Fiscal Fitness), even when the world doesn’t cooperate.

So before we get all depressed (like our economy) or fall to the floor (like the stock indices) or cry in our beer (like brokers), I’ll take a few minutes and point out…

10 REASONS WHY THIS STOCK MARKET CRASH DOESN’T MATTER
(Because 10 is not enough)

1. You don’t need the money now. In fact, one should rarely put money in stocks for less than, say, five years (a typical market cycle, so say some).
2. Today’s values don’t matter. What matters is what your investments are worth when you DO need the money.
3. Stocks don’t make anyone rich. Here’s what will: Family, friends, experiences.
4. We knew this would happen. The housing bubble, endless credit, mortgage messes, and more have become a house of cards waiting to collapse.
5. Losses are illusory. You only lose money for sure if you sell at the wrong time.
6. Buy low, sell high. For those with the stomach, now is the cheapest time to buy in more than five years.
7. Worrying won’t help. And we all must learn to cope with this kind of crap that hits the fan over and over throughout our lives.
8. Trust is dead. How can we trust these reckless Wall Streeters, bankers, real estate schmucks, politicians, and other leaders? Question authority.
9. Cash is king. Before investing anything, have several months of savings set aside in boring, safe places.
10. Don’t let your dreams crash. And don’t tie them too much to markets.
11. 55 good things happened today, even if the market did nearly go to 0.

• ODDS OF GOING: 75%…and while I may have to make adjustments to my life and this trip because of the losses, I suddenly feel more stubborn and committed.
• WHAT I’M DOING TO FIGHT MARKET ANGST: Kayaking, meditating, playing with children (who—brilliantly—don’t know or care!), hanging out with friends.
• BIGGEST PERSPECTIVE REMINDER: A dear friend was diagnosed with throat cancer on Friday. Maybe markets don’t matter so much. God bless him. Live for today.

As my family plans our BreakAway, the biggest obstacle still facing us is finding a shanty (or castle—ha!) to crash in after the first few weeks on St. John. We have a few possibilities in play. Hooray!

Do they look perfect? Of course not! Are they for sure where we would choose to go? Heck, no. Desperate and late and frugal as we are, must we try to trust the fates and follow these leads like groupies follow rock stars? Therefore:

• ODDS OF GOING: 75% and holding…

Brrr. Pout. Sigh.

We’ve had some contact with folks who have houses, modest or otherwise, that we thought would be candidates for long-term rental. You see, most places rent by the week—and already have much of their season rented. So we can’t live there. And we don’t want to move around all the time, what with kids and work to do and all.

Anyway, no luck so far. Our alleged angels are either too expensive, not interested, unaligned with our schedule, or all the above. Maybe we’ve picked the wrong place to go. It’s a jungle down there.

We now don’t have one decent live lead in play. I’m like, we could end up living on the streets. Or worse yet, coming home with our tails between our legs to live out yet another tundra winter.

Plan Z, if all else fails, is now an overdue consideration. I love the Caribbean. But maybe she don’t love me. HELP!?!?!

• ODDS OF GOING: 33%, and dropping

The soon-to-be southbound loons were crying before I even got outside today, long before sunrise.

Dew clung to the grass like millions of tears from the heart of the earth.

Geez, I hate to be melodramatic, but it feels worse than that when your camcorder plunges into the lake and loses 9 months of irreplaceable memories. Yep. That’s what we did. And we just got word from the Best Repair Geek that, so sorry, we can’t salvage that data. It drowned. Resuscitation failed. It’s dead and gone.

Good-bye, sweet memories.

NOTE TO SELF AND EVERYBODY: PROTECT YOUR DIGITALIA!

• Lost forever are dozens of hours of kids on beaches, boats, and beds reading stories. Old friends at cabins and new friends in island restaurants. CurlyGirl lost in reverie with dollies and dresses. Drawing sidewalk chalk pictures of the first purple lilacs and blue herons. Birthdays and holidays and graduation from Jump Start.
• Gone are AllBoy’s theatrical dives into the water. His posse and Himself having a party screaming with Tween excitement. Hanging all shy and grinny with GF#1 (while he didn’t know I filmed from a distance). Pitching strikeouts and hitting home runs and playing violin with the orchestra. Using a driftwood stick for a mike and interviewing rellies during a summer reunion.

At least we were there, I guess.

But the memories? Sure, they’re in the head. But the head don’t work so pretty good as it used too—the RAM is nearly maxed out. So in a sense, it’s just gone. Let’s be real: Life in fast-forward means it’s essential to have ways to capture the moment for reverence and ponderance later. Or those recollections decay, like so many yesterday’s roses.

That’s certain a Sabbatical theme I repeat over and over: Log your BreakAway! Log your BreakAway! Your best investment in life is making good memories…because they always appreciate in value as the years go by.

“We SHOULD download that camera soon…”

We said it countless times. But we neglected to take those gold nuggets to the safety deposit box. Forgot to back up. Forgot common sense. Forgot that sh*t happens. Man, does it.

Note to self: Download. Back up. Repeat ad nauseum—to avoid the nausea of lost data.

This life is not, after all, a dress rehearsal. You can’t rewind to relive your kids’ 5th and 11th years. You can only, as time goes by, gather around the screen, the scrapbook, the album, and let the bygone images and silent voices wash over and through you.

We do that. Watch family videos. A lot. Instead of movies and Disney and NFL. It’s amazing how alive it feels—and how much you realize you’ve forgotten while the days and years race by.

Now I must go back outside with the loons and the dew. Right now, they’re the only ones who understand. I’ll try some lakeside yoga. Breathe, bend, groan.

Seek strength. And maybe, just maybe, a stubborn outlook that includes trying harder to savor each moment while it happens…not let misfortune steal it away. Realize that this game is worth suiting up for, and sometimes it takes all you got to get half of what you want.

• ODDS OF TRYING HARDER TO TEND TO TECH TOOLS: 95%
• ODDS OF GOING: 75% (a new high)

Blogging is hard. I wonder if even the monstrous, fearless Paul Bunyan could master it. Oh sure, he could easily handle the lifehacking and workhacking thing. But could his bulky fingers handle the little, lonely keyboard?

Can’t believe nearly a week has gone by and I’ve not written a word. But if I had a dollar for every time I’ve written an entry in my head, well, I might could solve the current economic crisis.

Speaking of, allow me to introduce one of our (very few) FOK (Friends of Kirk) members: The Armchair Economist. He may fill in when this BlogStar is underwater.

Armchair Economist tends to speak in a strong voice, and now strongly recommends you read this excellent editorial by one of the Star Tribune’s editors. It’s about saving for the future, the current bear market, and the risk and speculation we all ingest every time we buy shares.

BTW, the Armchair Economist lives reclusively on a Midwest farm, and shows up in public only occasionally—and usually under heavy guard at the exclusive Rob Roy Club in midtown Manhattan. He won’t say from where he wrote this editorial.

Oh yeah, he’s also a bad keyboarder, so he keyboards ONLY in CAPITAL letters. Sorry for the annoyance; he means well.

MY FRIENDS AND COLLEAGUES:

I HOPE YOU TOOK A MOMENT TO PERUSE THE “BEAR WITH ME” ARTICLE. WHAT A GEM! SUMMARIZES SO MUCH OF WHAT I’VE BEEN TRYING TO SAY IN BETWEEN POUNDING FISTS ON TABLES. TO WIT:

FIRST, PLEASE NOTE THAT OUR WRITER IS NOT A RICH MAN OR WALL STREETER. HE’S JUST A GUY TRYING TO MAKE A BUCK.

SHORT SELLING IS EVIL: SUDDENLY, SHORT SELLING IS SEEN AS UNPATRIOTIC, BAD FOR CAPITALISM, & “GREEDY.” PISH TOSH! AS IF CAPITALISM ITSELF WERE WORKING RIGHT NOW! RATHER, WE ARE SLOWLY SOCIALIZING WALL STREET. AND MUCH MORE. MEANWHILE, THE ENTREPRENEURS WHO GOT RICH OFF IT FIRST SLIP OUT UNMARKED EXITS (WITHOUT EVEN YELLING “FIRE SALE!”) WHILE SNICKERING AND CLUTCHING THEIR CASH. MILLIONS, BILLIONS, TRILLIONS. WHAT A FARCE!

WALL STREET IS A “CASINO”: OUR AUTHOR MR. BANKS (WHAT A RICH NAME!) QUOTES POSSIBLE PRESIDENT MCCAIN AS SAYING THAT CERTAIN INVESTORS “HAVE TURNED WALL STREET INTO A CASINO.” WITH ALL DUE RESPECT, JOHNNY-COME-(NOT-SO)-LATELY, THE STREET HAS ALWAYS BEEN A CASINO. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS THAT MIRAGE HAS MANY MORE SCANTILY-CLAD WOMEN ON THE FLOOR, AND THEY SERVE STIFFER DRINKS! ONE MORE THING THEY SHARE: WHAT HAPPENS THERE…STAYS THERE.

AND FINALLY…

BUY-AND-HOLD CAN GROW MOLD: GUESS WHO TAUGHT US ALL TO BUY AND HOLD? THAT’S RIGHT: THE SAME INVESTMENT PROS THAT ARE NOW TEARING DOWN THE WORLD ECONOMY. SURE, IT CAN WORK. BUT SO CAN TAKING A SMALL ALLOCATION AND PLAYING THE VOLATILITY. BUY AND SELL AND VICE VERSA FOR EVERY 3% MOVE THIS YEAR AND YOU COULD BE RICH. BUY AND HOLD THIS YEAR? YOUR 401K MAY BECOME A 104K. FOR THAT MATTER, THE DOW FIRST CROSSED 1,000 IN 1966. IT DIDN’T MEANINGFULLY MOVE BEYOND THAT TIL 1982. HOLD THAT THOUGHT!

IN SUMMARY, MY FELLOW INVESTORS, BEWARE THE BEAR. EXPECT MUCH BULL. AND FOLLOW NEITHER HERD.

GODSPEED, from THE ARMCHAIR ECONOMIST

BlogWriter’s Note: THE ARMCHAIR ECONOMIST has now left the keyboard and gone back into seclusion. But you can reach him though this website, if you dare.