When on Sabbatical, expect many surprises—not always good. You can BreakAway. But you can’t run away from the Bad Thing. Moreover, you may unknowingly step out of the comfort zone and into the danger zone. So remember this 5-word mantra: I knew this might happen. Repeat. Breathe deep.

CurlyGirl has had two strikes already on this trip: a bee sting on the deck and fire ants in her pants in the parking lot of a restaurant. But today she struck out, got beaned, got ejected from the game, AND sent us all into extra innings in the ER. A smashed finger in a heavy door can do that. It can ruin your day—maybe more. Even if you’re a comeback kid.

When S*#@ hits the fan, I like to envision the WCS (worst case scenario). Deal with that first. In this case, death seems unlikely. Surgery? Possibly. But we might still make our plane to St. Vincent next Sunday. Guitar heroine-ism may be compromised, but there’s always piano.

Still, I hate emergency wards. Who doesn’t? The good news is that, so far, (as we say in Minnesota), it could be worse. Today’s long day—one that went according to no plan—went something like this.

• 10:40.  I leave house to go pick up friends B&E, who arrived from NYC last night but are carless (thanks to car-rental overbookings and incompetence), in a house atop Bordeaux Mountain. We are all planning to go to Maho Bay beach for the day. Coolers and gear are packed. Snorkeling and Red Stripe await.
• 10:45. As I pull out of the driveway, CurlyGirl screams and AllBoy comes rushing out the door. She has caught her hand in the heavy door. The winds are strong; her hand is small. Partner comes out to help. I leave post-haste as drama unfolds, convinced that this is just sibling stuff.
• 10:55. Atop Bordeaux Mountain, I can’t get to B&E’s house, because construction vehicles are in my way. I negotiate with Guys who move heavy machinery. Then back down the steep hill to B&E’s house—a death-defying act in its own right. I’m loving it.
• 10:58. Mom E is waving and yelling from their house as I try to get there. I wave back. I am calm. Navigating steep, pot-holey hills and fresh mud backward in 4WD. How cool is that?
• 11:01. I arrive. B&E’s 2 daughters greet me, concerned. I am told by the Adults that there is a Medical Emergency. CurlyGirl’s finger is cut open. I call home. Girl caught her finger in the door a SECOND time—after I left—when the wind slammed it shut again. This time: Serious. “I think the end might fall off,” Partner tells me in a very shaky voice.
• 11:05. Phones stop working. We try them all—landline, 2 cels. I must get home. I suggest that B&E and 2 daughters come with me, or they’re stuck atop the Mtn all day. They pile in.
• 11:12. I drop the Family at the bottom. Head home, up the other side of the hill. Partner greets me, in near panic. Blood is everywhere. This is unusual. I take a look. Indeed, middle finger is “dangling at the tip; might fall off.” CurlyGirl’s shock symptoms on the couch (watching “Tinkerbell”) suggest this is serious. No movement. Pupils dilated. Shallow breathing. Even AllBoy looks shocked.
• 11:15. Phones are working again and calls are made to the local medical practice. Dr. C (we go way back) explains that his clinic is closed (it is Saturday, after all) and the ER is probably the best option. Though they have no X-rays. Yet on-call doctor is credible and does mastery stitchery work, if needed. Good to know.
• 11:18. Strap Self and Partner and Boy and Girl in car. Head back down the hill. Drop Boy with Family B&E, who get to beach via temporary use of Crusty Jeep.
• 11:20. Girl and Partner ride in back seat. I put on music in vehicle. Children’s Pain Killer begins to take effect. Visions of St. Thomas surgery rooms dance in my head. “I knew this might happen…”

No BreakAway is complete without a visit (or 2) to the clinic.

• 11:40. Arrive at St. John’s Only Clinic. Nurse and doctor are awaiting, though it’s doctor’s day off. Impressive. They take us straight to a room, hand me paperwork. They schmooze the patient, who does NOT want them to remove the bandage. Much loud crying.
• 11:45. They unwrap bandage. Girl screams bloody murder…for next 20 minutes or so. They gradually wash, dab, fondle, pick, probe, confab, and ponder.
• 12:05. Dr. explains that the cut is severe, nearly through the finger. Straight through middle of the fingernail. They could remove fingernail, but that would hurt more—and nail may act to hold finger together. Don’t know if bone is broken or crushed. Don’t have X-rays. Can only wrap tight and hope it holds.
• 12:10.   They rewrap the finger, to the sounds of Girl screaming and thrashing. It takes 2 parents to hold her down. I show her pictures of rock stars and bad ads in Rolling Stone magazine to try to distract. It works, at times. She likes Brad Pitt. Yells NONONO when I suggest I grow a mustache, beard, long hair.
• 12:15. Dr. pulls me aside for a pep talk and discharge marching orders. Finger too small to do stitches, splint, surgery. Let’s just hope. (Smile, shrug of shoulders.) No swimming til at least Tuesday—no ocean, pools, water. Tap water here is NOT good. Wash with bottled water. Use disinfectant. Rewrap daily. Try “liquid band-aid” first times in water next week, but know that stuff stings. (I’ve never heard of it.)
• 12:17. If fever or green pus, bring in immediately. Know that infections are more common and severe down here. Even the air has germs.
• 12:20. More paperwork. Sign off; copy insurance card. No cost. Doctor leaves.
• 12:22. We exit. Head to downtown Cruz Bay to buy medical supplies as suggested, pick up some seafood to cook for dinner, and find B&E a rental car using old contacts.
• 2:30. Supplies are in hand. As is fresh tuna, salmon, London Broil, and prawns. Car procured after much drama with old ‘friends’ at local car rental joint (owner will rent his own jeep and drive his beater). I stay in Cruz Bay to wait for B, ensure closure on the rental car deal, and drive Crusty Jeep back to Coral Bay.
• 4:00. Home. Start chopping vegetables and cooking. Good therapy. Never mind that the knives here are sharp and I cut my middle finger…
• 5:55. CurlyGirl is strong. Her parents are spent. Dinner is served (the first course).
• 10:55. Dinner is over. Children’s painkiller is served (again). Step outside to thank the stars and repeat: 

“I knew this might happen.”

• 11:55. Retire.

It’s dang cold and snowy here.  That makes escaping to warmth more inviting, but also complicates the daily grind and last-minute errand runs.  Two days before take-off.  HELP!  I’d like to fall on the floor and cry in my beer, but there’s no time, and not much beer, and beer would only slow me down and we CAN’T have that.  Okay, maybe just one…

Snow is pretty, but makes for slippery slopes.

Ever have one of those days when everyone in your family is snitty?  (And nobody is volunteering to shovel the new snow?)  Tempers flare; the house is a train wreck; nothing works?  That’s us.  Except, it’s been that way for about a week.  There is this sense of chaotic desperation in the air.  And it’s amazing the things that choose to break down NOW of all times…

• The kitchen sink backed up, and needed a thorough roto-rooting.  Gross!
• The freezer ceased.  As in, melted ice cream and al dente ‘frozen’ vegetables.  Ish!  
• The security system went nuts.  Decided there was CO2 in the air and the alarms refused to stop.  (I think it was wrong, but it’s hard to tell exactly what is killing all the brain cells these days.)
• The Apples have been rotting.  Needing new batteries, more RAM, updated iLife, iTunes triage.  
• More, but who cares?  Thank goodness for supportive friends and Angie’s List.  

The kids are excited, hyper really.  Cute, but it can make things worse.  AllBoy is bouncing basketballs, like our heads, off the walls–which just ain’t right when the snorkelware and Nikon gear is underfoot and M and D’s patience is kaput.  CurlyGirl is packing 16 tons of Polly Pockets.  Things are getting lost.  Lists are getting longer.  Breaths are getting shorter.  

• 5 words:  We’ll be on that plane.  (That we just learned serves NO food and charges for ALL luggage AND beverages). 
• Countdown:  29 hours (til we leave the house).  
• Ostacles:  At least 2 of us are sick; one goes to an eye specialist for an infection in the morning.
• Biggest Scream:  Airlines.  They just keep changing the rules, and I don’t mean lifehacking.
• Biggest loss:  Holiday merriment.  What holidays?  What merriment?  Maybe later?
• Last night of good sleep:  I can’t recall.  
• First thing I’ll do on the islands:  A big Iowa Yee-ha scream and seek a Heineken.  
• Soundtrack ahead:  Reggae.  Tree frogs.  Men yelling in Island Patois.  Drunk tourists.  Goats and donkeys.  Roosters (all night long).  Wind.  Waves.  
• Note to self:  Keep the faith.  (“It’s all small stuff.”)
• ODDS OF GOING TODAY:  98%  (a new high).

(Excerpted from his annual “Night-Before-Turkey” speech, as given to family and friends at the Rob Roy Club in Midtown, Manhattan)

FRIENDS, FAMILY, WORLD LEADERS,

IT IS WITH A TEAR—OF JOY, OF COURSE—THAT I MUST TODAY EXPRESS MY PARTICULARLY HEARTFELT THANKS TO ALL MY FRIENDS AND COLLIES, I MEAN COLLEAGUES, WHO HAVE MADE POSSIBLE THIS $15 BILLION QUARTERLY PROFIT FROM THE ESTEEMED EXXON CORPORATION.

• THANKS…TO THE EXXON EXECUTIVES, WHO HAVE SO BRILLIANTLY SHOWN NO SHAME IN EXPLOITING CAPITALISM TO NEW RECORDS. RATHER LIKE A GREAT ATHLETE, THEY JUST KEEP SHATTERING THEIR OWN WORLD RECORDS! (aside: HOW THE HELL DO YOU DO IT!?!) {applause, applause}
• THANKS…TO THE U.S. GOVERNMENT (aside: OR SHOULD I SAY, “LACK THEREOF”). {chuckles and guffaws} WITHOUT SUCH OIL-FRIENDLY KINFOLK IN POWER, WELL, PERHAPS OUR PROFITS WOULD HAVE BEEN A MERE $14 BILLION! {laughter, back slapping}
• THANKS…TO THE U.S. PEOPLE, WHO WILLINGLY PAID MORE THAN $4 A GALLON FOR MONTHS ON END SO WE COULD ACHIEVE THIS MILESTONE. NOW, HOW DO I SAY THIS?…YOU ROCK?
• THANKS…TO THE OTHER PEOPLE OF THE WORLD, WHERE-EVER YOU ARE, FOR FOLLOWING OUR LEAD IN GAS GUZZLING? AIN’T IT GREAT? {applause, clinking of glasses, more back-slapping}
• THANKS…TO THE CAR MANUFACTURERS. MAKERS OF BIG VEHICLES, PICK-UP TRUCKS, MOBILITY, AND FREEEEEEEE-DOM! AND MAY I SAY, FROM THE BOTTOM OF MY PIGGY BANK, I SURE HOPE YOU GET YOUR $25 BILLION BAILOUT. (aside: IF TIMES WEREN’T SO ROUGH, I’D SUGGEST WE AT EXXON GIVE THEM A FEW BUCKS!) {loud laughter, shouts of “no! no!”, temporary chaos}
• THANKS…TO THE DINOSAURS—WHO LONG AGO GAVE THEIR GUTS, JUST SO WE HERE AT EXXON COULD FUEL THIS LIFESTYLE REVOLUTION.
• THANKS…TO THE EXXON SHAREHOLDERS, WHO SO SMARTLY GAVE ME A SEAT ON THE BOARD. I MAY BE OLD AND FADING AND COULD CARE LESS. BUT I ALWAYS VOTE “AYE.” AND TONIGHT, I VOTE “ME, MYSELF, AND AYE!”
• AND FINALLY, MY DEEPEST THANKS GOES TO THE EXXON BOARD OF DIRECTORS. THANK YOU, GENTLE MEN, FOR BRINGING ME TO YOUR TABLE. OH SURE, I SKIP THE MEETINGS. BUT I ALWAYS VOTE YES. AND TONIGHT, I VOTE YES! YES! 15 BILLION TIMES YES! {uproarious applause, group hugs, champagne everywhere)

PLEASE, PLEASE…I’M ALMOST DONE (aside: WITH MY SPEECH, BUT NOT WITH MY PROFIT-TAKING!). IN CLOSING, MAY I JUST WISH YOU ALL THE HAPPIEST OF THANKSGIVING. YOU’VE SO MUCH TO BE THANKFUL FOR: MONEY, POWER, GREED—BUT I MEAN THE GOOD KIND. LET THE FREE MARKET—AND THE OIL—FLOW…LIKE FINE WINE! {glasses clink}

AS YOU BREAK BREAD TOMORROW, PLEASE REMEMBER THE LITTLE PEOPLE, AND THE LITTLE THINGS.

BY LITTLE PEOPLE, I MEAN ANYONE WHO HAS NOT THE GOOD FORTUNE TO BE IN THIS ROOM, OR EVEN BEAN EXXON SHAREHOLDER. MAY GOD HAVE MERCY ON THEM, EVEN AS THEY GO BROKE BUYING GAS.

AND BY LITTLE THINGS, I MEAN LOBSTER—INSTEAD OF TURKEY. AFTER ALL, NOW THAT THE EXXON VALDEZ MESS IS FINALLY BEHIND US—IN SO MANY WAYS—WE CAN FINALLY GET DECENT SEAFOOD FROM ALASKA AGAIN. {Hear hear! Hear hear!}

GOOD NIGHT! MAY GOD BLESS YOU—AND THE EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION!

(The Armchair Economist shakes the hands of three Exxon “friends,” who shall remain nameless, and then is quickly escorted out of the building by umpteen bodyguards who whisk him into an awaiting, heavily armored, Toyota Prius.)

You can’t make this stuff up. This really just happened to me.

Along with millions of others in our great nation, I’m having a little issue with the IRS. Without getting technical, the story goes something like this…

The IRS owes me money. The IRS not only won’t pay it, but…

• The IRS decided I owe THEM money instead.
• They DOUBLED the amount without reason when I begged to differ.
• They REFUSE to offer calculations or reasons.
• And yes, my accountant and I are simply playing by THEIR RULES.
• (BTW, Minnesota accepted our claim and paid the refund immediately!!!)

This sick dance has been going on for months, and they keep failing to respond by the dates they say they will. So yesterday, I did the unthinkable: I called the IRS.

Note to self: Never again.

I waited. And waited. After a half-hour or so, I got a live person! She read me the standard greeting script (name, rank, location, this may be recorded, etc.). I talked back, ready to dig in.

But guess what? She couldn’t hear me. Just kept saying,

“Hello, hello? Is anybody there? I’m sorry, I can’t hear you. Please call back Monday through Friday at the hours of…”

I’m literally SCREAMING into my phone, which has NEVER malfunctioned and worked fine before and after. She hung up. I fell to the floor. It was too late in the day to try again; they close up early.

Yes, I fell to the floor. Uh-huh, I kicked and screamed and wailed like an baby in a tantrum—this, despite my ever-evolving Work in yoga, meditation, and other stuff to help me remain calm. Accepting. Open. Nonjudgmental and all that crap.

Fuggetaboutit! Mindfulness does not apply to dealing with the IRS.

Hey, I’m only playing by THEIR RULES. Following their instructions, their code. But they somehow turn my refund into a substantial bill. Won’t give their reasons or figurings why. And then can’t hear me when I finally get them on the phone.

See? So may of the rules we live by are just plain bogus. Absurd. There’s nobody home, not even at the IRS—the Taxman for the US, the largest financial entity in the world. We try to play by these “rules” and still, those in charge, can’t even hear us.

You can’t make this stuff up. So although it’s clear that you can run but you cannot hide (or be heard), I see yet another reason to run away: The IRS.

God Bless America. We need all the help we can get.

These stats are ill enough to make you sick.   

• 33 Estimated percentage of Americans who report their family has had problems paying medical bills in the past year.
• 47 Percentage of the public who report that someone in their family is skipping pills, postponing or cutting back on medical care they needed in the past year because of the cost of care.

What is wrong with this picture? Just about everything.

How can people stay healthy if they can’t afford the costs? Won’t they only get worse and it’ll cost our society (and themselves) more? What good is a BreakAway or even an evening out if you don’t feel good?

Don’t take your health for granted. If you’re planning a vacation of any kind, know you’ll enjoy it much more if you don’t go into it sick and tired.

A BreakAway, at its best, is a time to rejuvenate. Not to recover.

Fight to feel good. Apparently, that’s not always easy.

OMG.  FYI.  

• 53 Percentage of working Americans who have been interrupted by a work-related phone call or e-mail while in the bathroom.
• 23 Percentage who have been interrupted while on a date.
• 59 Percentage of working Americans who never turn off their mobile device.
• SOURCE: Nokia

Is this news? Or, as David Letterman would ask, “Is this something?”

No. Because most of us have already been there and done that, or at least seen that.

Yes, because it stinks. Not for Nokia, of course. They are laughing all the way to the bank (and the bathroom). But jeez, is it any wonder people complain about stress? That they grumble about lack of “free time?” I mean, if you offer up yourself to digital interruption when tending to nature’s calls, when won’t you?

If you can’t give unfettered attention to your date, what are the prospects for a long-term understanding, spreading the sheets together, or even a good-night kiss?

“Oh, ‘scuze me, Biff, I’m turned on but, like, so is my phone, and it’s all atwitter right now…”

“I’ll give you a little smooch right after I take this phone call…”

As for the 59% who NEVER turn it off, good luck. The few folks who believe in silence and choice wish you well. Please know, though, that most studies have debunked the notion of “multitasking” as poppycock. Human brains just ain’t wired for it. At this rate, maybe we WILL be in a few thousand years. But by then, cell phones will be so, like, yesterday.

Thanks for listening. Now if you’ll excuse me, please, I have to go the bathroom. OOPS! Almost forgot my i-phone…

Exxon made $15 billion in profit for Q3, so reports the AP (and all news sources) today. Q3: You know, that’s when we all were enjoying taking road trips with friends, or to the reunion, or to the cabin up north—while paying north of $4 a gallon.

Ain’t that America? When the little people (albeit often in their big vehicles) want to have some fun, the Big People find a way to make it hurt. $15 billion. That’s just nuts.

• $15 billion would provide 1.5 million people $10,000 seed money to start their Sabbatical.
• $15 billion would transform the economies of countless poor nations.
• $15 billion could provide the start-up funds for dozens and dozens of smart companies developing alternative energies.
• Heck, $15 billion could transform Exxon into oil + alterna giant—that is prepared for the future, when the oil runs dry.

But that’s not the way Exxon works. They are very used to making profits; one could almost say they’re addicted to it, like drivers are addicted to gas. Check out this AP factoid:

“If one-time gains like bankruptcy settlements and spinoffs are stripped away from other companies, Exxon Mobil owns the record for the top 10 most-profitable quarters for a U.S. company, as well as the largest annual profit.”

Yes, it’s true. In the previous quarter (Q2), Exxon made (only) $11.68 billion, the second-largest profit ever. For those of us watching our pennies and trying to save for a vacation, a BreakAway, or retirement, we have three reaction-options: Buy the stock; refuse to hold the stock (on moral grounds); Go for a ride (maybe on your bike) and don’t think too much about it.

I like the third option. Shift gears, let capitalism do its wild, funky thang, and ride on.

The soon-to-be southbound loons were crying before I even got outside today, long before sunrise.

Dew clung to the grass like millions of tears from the heart of the earth.

Geez, I hate to be melodramatic, but it feels worse than that when your camcorder plunges into the lake and loses 9 months of irreplaceable memories. Yep. That’s what we did. And we just got word from the Best Repair Geek that, so sorry, we can’t salvage that data. It drowned. Resuscitation failed. It’s dead and gone.

Good-bye, sweet memories.

NOTE TO SELF AND EVERYBODY: PROTECT YOUR DIGITALIA!

• Lost forever are dozens of hours of kids on beaches, boats, and beds reading stories. Old friends at cabins and new friends in island restaurants. CurlyGirl lost in reverie with dollies and dresses. Drawing sidewalk chalk pictures of the first purple lilacs and blue herons. Birthdays and holidays and graduation from Jump Start.
• Gone are AllBoy’s theatrical dives into the water. His posse and Himself having a party screaming with Tween excitement. Hanging all shy and grinny with GF#1 (while he didn’t know I filmed from a distance). Pitching strikeouts and hitting home runs and playing violin with the orchestra. Using a driftwood stick for a mike and interviewing rellies during a summer reunion.

At least we were there, I guess.

But the memories? Sure, they’re in the head. But the head don’t work so pretty good as it used too—the RAM is nearly maxed out. So in a sense, it’s just gone. Let’s be real: Life in fast-forward means it’s essential to have ways to capture the moment for reverence and ponderance later. Or those recollections decay, like so many yesterday’s roses.

That’s certain a Sabbatical theme I repeat over and over: Log your BreakAway! Log your BreakAway! Your best investment in life is making good memories…because they always appreciate in value as the years go by.

“We SHOULD download that camera soon…”

We said it countless times. But we neglected to take those gold nuggets to the safety deposit box. Forgot to back up. Forgot common sense. Forgot that sh*t happens. Man, does it.

Note to self: Download. Back up. Repeat ad nauseum—to avoid the nausea of lost data.

This life is not, after all, a dress rehearsal. You can’t rewind to relive your kids’ 5th and 11th years. You can only, as time goes by, gather around the screen, the scrapbook, the album, and let the bygone images and silent voices wash over and through you.

We do that. Watch family videos. A lot. Instead of movies and Disney and NFL. It’s amazing how alive it feels—and how much you realize you’ve forgotten while the days and years race by.

Now I must go back outside with the loons and the dew. Right now, they’re the only ones who understand. I’ll try some lakeside yoga. Breathe, bend, groan.

Seek strength. And maybe, just maybe, a stubborn outlook that includes trying harder to savor each moment while it happens…not let misfortune steal it away. Realize that this game is worth suiting up for, and sometimes it takes all you got to get half of what you want.

• ODDS OF TRYING HARDER TO TEND TO TECH TOOLS: 95%
• ODDS OF GOING: 75% (a new high)

Blogging is hard. I wonder if even the monstrous, fearless Paul Bunyan could master it. Oh sure, he could easily handle the lifehacking and workhacking thing. But could his bulky fingers handle the little, lonely keyboard?

Can’t believe nearly a week has gone by and I’ve not written a word. But if I had a dollar for every time I’ve written an entry in my head, well, I might could solve the current economic crisis.

Speaking of, allow me to introduce one of our (very few) FOK (Friends of Kirk) members: The Armchair Economist. He may fill in when this BlogStar is underwater.

Armchair Economist tends to speak in a strong voice, and now strongly recommends you read this excellent editorial by one of the Star Tribune’s editors. It’s about saving for the future, the current bear market, and the risk and speculation we all ingest every time we buy shares.

BTW, the Armchair Economist lives reclusively on a Midwest farm, and shows up in public only occasionally—and usually under heavy guard at the exclusive Rob Roy Club in midtown Manhattan. He won’t say from where he wrote this editorial.

Oh yeah, he’s also a bad keyboarder, so he keyboards ONLY in CAPITAL letters. Sorry for the annoyance; he means well.

MY FRIENDS AND COLLEAGUES:

I HOPE YOU TOOK A MOMENT TO PERUSE THE “BEAR WITH ME” ARTICLE. WHAT A GEM! SUMMARIZES SO MUCH OF WHAT I’VE BEEN TRYING TO SAY IN BETWEEN POUNDING FISTS ON TABLES. TO WIT:

FIRST, PLEASE NOTE THAT OUR WRITER IS NOT A RICH MAN OR WALL STREETER. HE’S JUST A GUY TRYING TO MAKE A BUCK.

SHORT SELLING IS EVIL: SUDDENLY, SHORT SELLING IS SEEN AS UNPATRIOTIC, BAD FOR CAPITALISM, & “GREEDY.” PISH TOSH! AS IF CAPITALISM ITSELF WERE WORKING RIGHT NOW! RATHER, WE ARE SLOWLY SOCIALIZING WALL STREET. AND MUCH MORE. MEANWHILE, THE ENTREPRENEURS WHO GOT RICH OFF IT FIRST SLIP OUT UNMARKED EXITS (WITHOUT EVEN YELLING “FIRE SALE!”) WHILE SNICKERING AND CLUTCHING THEIR CASH. MILLIONS, BILLIONS, TRILLIONS. WHAT A FARCE!

WALL STREET IS A “CASINO”: OUR AUTHOR MR. BANKS (WHAT A RICH NAME!) QUOTES POSSIBLE PRESIDENT MCCAIN AS SAYING THAT CERTAIN INVESTORS “HAVE TURNED WALL STREET INTO A CASINO.” WITH ALL DUE RESPECT, JOHNNY-COME-(NOT-SO)-LATELY, THE STREET HAS ALWAYS BEEN A CASINO. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS THAT MIRAGE HAS MANY MORE SCANTILY-CLAD WOMEN ON THE FLOOR, AND THEY SERVE STIFFER DRINKS! ONE MORE THING THEY SHARE: WHAT HAPPENS THERE…STAYS THERE.

AND FINALLY…

BUY-AND-HOLD CAN GROW MOLD: GUESS WHO TAUGHT US ALL TO BUY AND HOLD? THAT’S RIGHT: THE SAME INVESTMENT PROS THAT ARE NOW TEARING DOWN THE WORLD ECONOMY. SURE, IT CAN WORK. BUT SO CAN TAKING A SMALL ALLOCATION AND PLAYING THE VOLATILITY. BUY AND SELL AND VICE VERSA FOR EVERY 3% MOVE THIS YEAR AND YOU COULD BE RICH. BUY AND HOLD THIS YEAR? YOUR 401K MAY BECOME A 104K. FOR THAT MATTER, THE DOW FIRST CROSSED 1,000 IN 1966. IT DIDN’T MEANINGFULLY MOVE BEYOND THAT TIL 1982. HOLD THAT THOUGHT!

IN SUMMARY, MY FELLOW INVESTORS, BEWARE THE BEAR. EXPECT MUCH BULL. AND FOLLOW NEITHER HERD.

GODSPEED, from THE ARMCHAIR ECONOMIST

BlogWriter’s Note: THE ARMCHAIR ECONOMIST has now left the keyboard and gone back into seclusion. But you can reach him though this website, if you dare.

We’re in Countdown Mode now. Less than three months, and we’re not having fun yet.

What happened? Countless obstacles (a.k.a. Big Butts) appear in your path when planning a Big Break. Duh!?! I’ll not list them all for fear of boring you and frightening myself. But today’s, which emerged last evening over dinner in a dark, rude restaurant is this: Communication. If you’re not going alone, you’ll need to talk over stuff like…

• Like…What is Plan Z? Or, can we even get a ticket back home after the 17 days in St. John—if the Sabbatical isn’t happening? See, we still only have on-way tickets. The airlines aren’t helpful. And the Kommittee if not doing the work. Yuck.
• LIKE…Sabbatical aside, how are we, the Family, doing with back-to-school? Oh BTW, we have these two high-maintenance hobbies called children (AllBoy, 11, and CurlyGirl, 5). School has started, but we are all still living like summertime around here. The violin and math book remain untouched. The iTouch is endlessly touched. Even getting to bed is like all-star wrestling. Where’s Alice (from “The Brady Bunch”) when you need her?  Routine can be boring. But it can make matters simpler, and get things done.

But nah, what we’ve got here is not only house-wide failure to communicate, but downright chaos and disorder. Dirty dishes abound. Junk food is ubiquitous. The Kids are so NOT adjusting to the fall regimen, but instead complaining about it all, trying to skip sports, and treating me like the bad cop.

Do these citified brats even want a BreakAway? Would they even groove on daily beach lessons (home schooling) with teacher-Dad? Or would they rather just watch SpongeBob SquarePants reruns?

Please: Don’t answer that.

Meanwhile, my own dreams seem like a school of angelfish getting tangled in nasty nets. And as for my parenting prowess? Let’s just say I’m getting real confident about my kayaking. Solo.

On very little, fitful sleep, these are the questions I’m not loving long before daybreak. Will the sun even come up today? I’m filled with doubt; the pre-dawn sky looks filled with murky haze. An ill wind is hissing and snarling. (Or is that just my children?)

Chance of rain: 70%.

• TODAY’S EMOTIONAL WEATHER FORECAST: Dark & stormy.
• ODDS OF GOING: 33%.
• ODDS OF THIS WEBSITE GETTING LAUNCHED: 25%.
• ODDS OF ME (OR ANYONE) MAKING A ‘CAREER’ PREACHING THE GOSPEL OF SABBATICAL: 10%.
• ODDS I’LL ATTEMPT A NAP TODAY: 100%.

Is it just me, or is Rilke’s first name, Rainer, kind of a downer?